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Monthly Market Review - February 2024

We will look at the record month that the Bitcoin ETFs have had and compare them to gold ETFs. After a relatively slow start, the AUM of ETFs ramped up sharply, accruing $55 billion in assets in the first two months. Most ETF analysts predicted this level of AUM by the end of the year, so for it to happen in two months was extraordinary. This sharp increase in ETF flow drove up the price of Bitcoin and other digital assets. At the end of February, Bitcoin was at $61’200, a rise of 42%, or $18’100, its most significant ever monthly increase in USD terms.


For comparison, to understand Bitcoin’s scale, gold ETFs have approximately $100 billion in AUM, so Bitcoin has quickly gathered close to 60% of the assets of gold ETFs.


The graph below shows the ETF providers' respective AUMs since inception. It shows IBIT by Blackrock as the fastest-growing ETF. The vertical axis is in USD, so the impressive growth from 28 billion to 65 billion combines inflows and the significant BTC price increase.



For speed comparison, the below graph shows the net flow of gold ETFs versus Bitcoin from launch. The axis is days since launch, and gold’s inflow has been inflation-adjusted since its launch in 2005. One can see how quickly the Bitcoin ETFs have grown in the first 30 days compared to the gold ETFs, and that growth has extended even further in the next 30 days, which isn’t shown in the graph.



The last graph shows the cumulative flow, which better shows Grayscale’s withdrawals compared to the inflow from the other ETF providers and how, for much of January, the net inflow (green line) was negligible due to large GBTC outflows. Due to the rapid price appreciation of BTC, GBTC’s dollar value has remained stable even though it has suffered close to $10 billion of withdrawals. So, close to $30 billion could still be redeemed in time.





 

Overall, the Bitcoin ETFs exceeded all expectations in February and have had a positive price action after the outflow of GBTC slowed. Internally, we will keep watching the BTC ETF flow as it clearly impacts the market. Additionally, we are monitoring the flow around the upcoming ETH ETF launch. The probability of this launch being in May has dropped to 35%, with the most likely timeframe being September. We expect ETH’s volatility to pick up in the lead-up to September.


Performance

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