Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market. It may be the decentralised product with the best “product-market fit” as it has over 80% of the global market share for prediction markets—it processes approximately $150m worth of predictions per month. Its infrastructure is decentralised, so no regulator or government can limit which markets are launched. Some of its novel markets have become sizable and serve as a good barometer for topical issues.
For instance, over $13 million is currently at stake on whether Biden will be the democratic nominee by November 4. His struggle during the debate with Trump caused the implied probability of his withdrawal to spike. By July 11, it had reached 62%. With their proven track record, these markets now serve as a robust and dependable real-time indicator for making decisions or executing financial hedges.
For example, an oil exploration company could hedge the risk of the Democrats winning, which may threaten their ability to access exploration permits. Or a Democratic donor could hedge the risk that their preferred candidate drops out.
As prediction markets, like Polymarket, grow more mainstream, they increasingly serve as a tool to harness collective intelligence for informed decision-making and their decentralised nature means anybody can launch or interact with a market, helping ‘truth’ become public.
Performance
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